Is Brian Dozier a power hitter?
He is this year. But, what about next? What can we expect from Dozier?
I already know what columnists and projectionist will do with Dozier.
They will put his power numbers between what he did this year and what he has done in the past. They play it safe that way.
Which makes me wonder what good a columnist or projectionist is.
Aren't they supposed to tell us that Dozier was in for a power year?
We believe them to be proactionary, they're reactionary.
That's what I love about the PreMature. There is very little written about who will do what in next year's fantasy baseball world.
We are the Lewis And Clark of drafts.
Blazing a trail that will be followed by millions of others.
Blah Blah Blah.
Geez Kenyon, shuddup!
I didn't write this to minimize projectionists or maximize the meaning of the PreMature, so let's get to the subject at hand...
AJ Pollock.
What the Hell do we do with AJ Pollock?
Like Dozier, we already know that projectionists will put him between his career year and his injury years.
A given.
Pollock is a fantasy difference maker.
He's also a Ming Vase.
Expensive and so brittle.
Unlike that Ming Vase, Pollock has to move to prove his worth. And when Pollock moves, the chances of him and injury multiply.
Pollock is a wonderful player. A six tool player. His best tool, being disabled.
So again, what do we do with Pollock?
Last year, he was taken at the bottom of the first round or near the top of the second round in most drafts.
I felt that was too high of a price to pay for a player with his injury history. In Pollock's Major League career, he has played over 100 games twice in his five years.
In the Minors, he missed a whole year as well.
Pollock is great at playing baseball. He's just better at getting hurt playing baseball.
If somebody wants to take a chance on him in the first or second round, he is their player. Especially in a draft where Pollock will have dozens of chances to get hurt, even before spring training.
Third round?
I think, realistically, somebody pulls the trigger in this round. It won't be me. But there are some gamblers in our league who will take the chance on a difference making player.
For me, depending on my roster, I would start considering Pollock in the fourth round. But more than likely pass on him in most instances.
He is one of those players that we want to see make it out of Spring Training, injury-free, before drafting him.
Last year, he did not and many suffered the consequences.
For those that drafted him before his injury, the 'AJ' in Pollocks name meant 'Already Jacked'.
In the PreMature, stability is a good quality.
Pollock's sixth tool is his propensity for getting hurt.
A guy like Mike Trout's sixth tool would be his stability.
Fantasy-wise, Pollock is as stable as Yasiel Puig at a frat party.
There is one more thing that bugs me about Pollock.
He has produced just one year.
One year.
In his eight years of professional baseball, Pollock has hit double digit home runs, one time.
His career year of 2015.
He has never driven in more than 80 runs.
Even in his career year, he drove in just 76.
He stole 39 bases in his career year. He came close to that figure once in the minors with 36.
Will he run as much?
Injuries have a way of slowing down base stealers.
Maybe the better question would be, do we WANT him to run as much?
Running and sliding increases his chances of being hurt.
Ok, I just talked myself out of Pollock for even the fourth round
Our draft starts Friday. I'll let you know where Pollock goes when drafted.