Post
by Crazy Like a Fox » Wed Jan 21, 2009 4:22 am
Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Same for Garrett Atkins, which is probably a better comparison to Castilla than Holliday. You are attempting to put the park in the player. Last year when Swisher left Oakland and was traded to the White Sox, you predicted a rosy outlook for him. Well, Swisher has to be evaluted before the park and Swisher is a dog. The change of park from Oakland to the White Sox had no effect, just a change in dog houses. Holliday can be traded to SD and still flourish.
Ballpark effect has a big impact on you, thats good, everybodys different. Your posts almost insinuate that Holliday will be playing 162 games on the road this year, that is just not the case.
Holliday's skill set is at a different level than McLouth. With that skill set, I would have taken that bet if Holliday played in Yellowstone Park.
While true that the ballpark effect may knock Holliday from the first round in a few drafts, to elevate another player from third or fourth round status, like McLouth, to pass him is silly, unless you believe in McLouth enough to make him a first round or top of the second selection. I doubt you will be doing that.
We are probably boring the pants off of the rest of the Board with our disagreement. If you'd like to further your arguments, send me a pm. Good post. [/QUOTE]You make an excellent point Doughboys, I see what you're saying. The only reason I feel that way about Holliday is that he never once showed dominant skills on the road in any of the 5 seasons of his career.
You could say, well, Peavy has had a one run difference in e.r.a. in his career home/road splits, so does that mean he won't pitch as successfully if he pitches somewhere else. Well no. He, unlike Holliday, has shown in 3 different years (2004, 2005 and 2007 respectively) that he was equally as good on the road as he had been at home. He has proven himself on the road, Holliday has not. I don't expect a major dropoff in Peavy somewhere else, quite contrary I expect a potential spike upwards in wins if he can get some more run support with peripherals that are very similar to him pitching in San Diego.
So I have thought about what you've said and it makes sense for most players. I think it's a great post but does not help your case with Holliday.
With Swisher, BA wise, he clearly will always have a problem with that, I thought he could improve upon it playing in that park, I was wrong. But Swisher can still be a very productive player. He can still hit 30 homers with 100 rbi's and 100 runs I believe, but that average is dreadful at best. I'm not one of those people that thinks, last year he did this so therefore that's all he'll ever be. I think going to a new park, new team, there's an adjustment period for every ballplayer. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad. Jason Giambi was never the same when he went to the Yankees.
So there we have it. I'll try not to bore everyone else with our jibberish over this subject anymore. We both made our points. 2009 will be the test. Good luck to.....McLouth.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Holliday, Hanley, Beltran, Abreu, McLouth, and Werth. 
