Originally posted by Bullgod:
Mark Reynolds and his .239 avg. will be lucky to see 1st base 40 times this year!!! I hope people understand I was making fun of the hype squad who take players' quotes and spring training too seriously.
As far as Reynolds being a .239 hitter I'm not so sure. In 111 games in 2007 he hit .279, so does that mean he's a .279 hitter, maybe in the future, but he's had limited time to establish himself. In fact, in 2007 he had months .426, .342, .300, .162, .194.
Does that mean he's a .462 hitter or a .194 hitter, no. Again, these are small sample sizes of months of a young player who is still learning how to adjust to major league pitching.
Obviously his strikeout rate is alarming (to say the least), and is the biggest reason that avg. is so low. If you look at his hitting in certain counts it really leaves a lot to be desired....and improved.
When he puts the first pitch in play he hits .418.

In 2007, he .341 in the same situation.
If you really break down his situational hitting you'll see a huge discrepancy between how he hits depending on if he's in a favorable count or not. With two strikes on him, he is absolutely horrible, somewhere in the .100's. When he's ina favorably count, he is pretty dominant in BA. If he can learn to adjust how he hits with 2 strikes just a little (he's working on it), then I could easily see that BA back in the .270+ territory. I hate to see players pigeon-holed based on one year.
I remember seeing it with Uggla before last year. He hit .245 in 2007, so when I drafted him in one of my leagues (in the 10th round), some commented that he's going to really "bring down your average". I reasoned, he just hit .283 in 2006, so how does one year make him a .245 hitter? Sure enough, Uggla hit .260 in 2008, .286 in the first half. Does that mean Uggla's a .260 hitter, again, you don't overrate the previous year.
Ryan Howard's another guy who gets pigeon-holed based on his previous season. He's got a .279 lifetime average in 2071 career at-bats. He's not a .251 hitter. Yet just about everyone says "you gotta make up for the BA". Nobody says that with Jose Lopez who has a .271 career average (8 points less than Howards'), and hit .251 in 2007.
My prediction for Mark Reynolds. .275-32-110-85 runs - 12 steals. I don't think he'll kill your average like you think. If he hits .260+ he's worth your pick because that power potential is pretty exciting.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)