Mark Reynolds steals 6th base in spring training.....

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:50 pm

He says he wants people to know that he "wants to steal 40" just so fantasy teams overhype him on draft day.

He also wanted to remind everyone that he stole more bases than Adam Jones last year.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:09 pm

Reminds me of Cano last spring.

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:16 pm

Crazy, sure do hope you take all that trash you been pimping the last 2 months in your draft tommorrow, some how i doubt thats the case. But if it is the case then that would be one less team to worry about.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:28 pm

Originally posted by Bama:

Crazy, sure do hope you take all that trash you been pimping the last 2 months in your draft tommorrow, some how i doubt thats the case. But if it is the case then that would be one less team to worry about. One man's trash is another man's treasure. I'm sure I'll do fine. But thanks for your support.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Apr 02, 2009 6:41 pm

It was a sort of a veiled, "He's stolen six bases during spring training, he's on pace to steal 40 for the year. And for you 'on pace' fans, Ryan Howard with a good post season will be hitting a total of 80 home runs this year.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 2:24 am

In college, Reynolds stole 29 bases on 36 attempts in 639 AB's.

Maybe he could steal 25+.....but keep in mind, Rickie Weeks batted 495 and 479 during his freshman and sophomore seasons. I guess those aluminum bats do make a difference.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:28 am

so do college pitchers and catchers.

Bullgod · Post by **Bullgod** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 3:47 am

Mark Reynolds and his .239 avg. will be lucky to see 1st base 40 times this year!!!

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:41 am

he's a good pick on the right team. If you already have Abert, Ichiro and Manny for example- you can live with the 230ish ave. He should hit 25 - 30 Hrs from a thin 3B position.

My projection:

25/16/235/95/75- looks a little like Ricky Weeks?

Ps: I do not own him.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:56 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

so do college pitchers and catchers. Great point.

In MLB you have the best of the best arms and most accurate (not always) catchers compared to stealing off of Biff and Joey in college or the minor leagues.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 5:01 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

so do college pitchers and catchers. Great point.

In MLB you have the best of the best arms and most accurate (not always) catchers compared to stealing off of Biff and Joey in college or the minor leagues. [/QUOTE]Bip Roberts was close.

I've never met a Biff in real life.

Great movie, college kid name.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 5:30 am

Originally posted by Bullgod:

Mark Reynolds and his .239 avg. will be lucky to see 1st base 40 times this year!!! I hope people understand I was making fun of the hype squad who take players' quotes and spring training too seriously.

As far as Reynolds being a .239 hitter I'm not so sure. In 111 games in 2007 he hit .279, so does that mean he's a .279 hitter, maybe in the future, but he's had limited time to establish himself. In fact, in 2007 he had months .426, .342, .300, .162, .194.

Does that mean he's a .462 hitter or a .194 hitter, no. Again, these are small sample sizes of months of a young player who is still learning how to adjust to major league pitching.

Obviously his strikeout rate is alarming (to say the least), and is the biggest reason that avg. is so low. If you look at his hitting in certain counts it really leaves a lot to be desired....and improved.

When he puts the first pitch in play he hits .418.

In 2007, he .341 in the same situation.

If you really break down his situational hitting you'll see a huge discrepancy between how he hits depending on if he's in a favorable count or not. With two strikes on him, he is absolutely horrible, somewhere in the .100's. When he's ina favorably count, he is pretty dominant in BA. If he can learn to adjust how he hits with 2 strikes just a little (he's working on it), then I could easily see that BA back in the .270+ territory. I hate to see players pigeon-holed based on one year.

I remember seeing it with Uggla before last year. He hit .245 in 2007, so when I drafted him in one of my leagues (in the 10th round), some commented that he's going to really "bring down your average". I reasoned, he just hit .283 in 2006, so how does one year make him a .245 hitter? Sure enough, Uggla hit .260 in 2008, .286 in the first half. Does that mean Uggla's a .260 hitter, again, you don't overrate the previous year.

Ryan Howard's another guy who gets pigeon-holed based on his previous season. He's got a .279 lifetime average in 2071 career at-bats. He's not a .251 hitter. Yet just about everyone says "you gotta make up for the BA". Nobody says that with Jose Lopez who has a .271 career average (8 points less than Howards'), and hit .251 in 2007.

My prediction for Mark Reynolds. .275-32-110-85 runs - 12 steals. I don't think he'll kill your average like you think. If he hits .260+ he's worth your pick because that power potential is pretty exciting.

Bullgod · Post by **Bullgod** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 6:37 am

When a guy strikes out 204 times and he is such a poor two strike hitter that doesn't bode well. If you have access to this info, I would suggest the Dodgers and Rockies could get that same information. It also says that he probably hasn't adjusted to a Major League breaking pitch. My take is this...Chad Tracy plays more games at 3B than Reynolds. C. Jackson plays 1B and Byrnes LF most of the time. But that's what this time of year is for...Good luck with Reynolds if you have him. I agree plenty of upside!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 6:48 am

Reynolds versus other hitters is a "luck" versus "skill" argument.

Craze, you mention his propensity to swing at the first pitch. So do you think that any starting pitcher is going to give him anything reasonably near his comfort zone? If he gets anything, it is a mistake on the part of the pitcher. In '06, in AA ball, his contact rate was 70%. In '07 with his first real taste of MLB action, 69%. Last year, 62%. Going in the wrong direction. You gotta put wood on the ball in order to get a BA anywhere near .270. When he catches up to it, it goes a long way (22% of his hits were homeruns which is a higher percentage than Pujols). But he has got to catch up a little more often (skill). He can hit .270 without it, but that is luck and luck cannot be counted on.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 7:09 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Reynolds versus other hitters is a "luck" versus "skill" argument.

Craze, you mention his propensity to swing at the first pitch. So do you think that any starting pitcher is going to give him anything reasonably near his comfort zone? If he gets anything, it is a mistake on the part of the pitcher. In '06, in AA ball, his contact rate was 70%. In '07 with his first real taste of MLB action, 69%. Last year, 62%. Going in the wrong direction. You gotta put wood on the ball in order to get a BA anywhere near .270. When he catches up to it, it goes a long way (22% of his hits were homeruns which is a higher percentage than Pujols). But he has got to catch up a little more often (skill). He can hit .270 without it, but that is luck and luck cannot be counted on. You make a valid point. But when you say "he's going in the wrong direction" regarding his contact rate, you're still basing it on one season. With his situational hitting, he merely needs to change his approach with 2 strikes. That alone will make a huge difference in BA.

He's a young player who's mentioned that it's something that he's going to work on. You have to admit, hitters can change their approach at certain times to maximize their skills.

You could be right Edward Kings, but I'm not ready to write down a -.250 average just yet.

Don't you atleast agree that this kid has a lot of talent and upside? Doesn't that play into projections?

Or do we write down a .245 average and call it a day?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:36 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Reynolds versus other hitters is a "luck" versus "skill" argument.

Craze, you mention his propensity to swing at the first pitch. So do you think that any starting pitcher is going to give him anything reasonably near his comfort zone? If he gets anything, it is a mistake on the part of the pitcher. In '06, in AA ball, his contact rate was 70%. In '07 with his first real taste of MLB action, 69%. Last year, 62%. Going in the wrong direction. You gotta put wood on the ball in order to get a BA anywhere near .270. When he catches up to it, it goes a long way (22% of his hits were homeruns which is a higher percentage than Pujols). But he has got to catch up a little more often (skill). He can hit .270 without it, but that is luck and luck cannot be counted on. You make a valid point. But when you say "he's going in the wrong direction" regarding his contact rate, you're still basing it on one season. With his situational hitting, he merely needs to change his approach with 2 strikes. That alone will make a huge difference in BA.

He's a young player who's mentioned that it's something that he's going to work on. You have to admit, hitters can change their approach at certain times to maximize their skills.

You could be right Edward Kings, but I'm not ready to write down a -.250 average just yet.

Don't you atleast agree that this kid has a lot of talent and upside? Doesn't that play into projections?

Or do we write down a .245 average and call it a day? [/QUOTE]Anybody who takes 22% of their hits and turns them into longballs has talent and upside, absolutely. And yes, a ballplayer can learn new talents (i.e. pitch selection), but they are swimming against the odds. Most players with the ability to have a decent BA over the course of a complete season have already shown such skills, usually beginning at the minor league level. Some players can hit for power, some earn a living off speed, some can produce a good BA, and some have good defense. Few can do all, many three, most two, and some only one. Reynolds, in my error-prone book, is a one trick pony.

No one is going to dispute Reynolds power. He has had a good spring. Good luck with him.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:53 am

Originally posted by Bullgod:

When a guy strikes out 204 times and he is such a poor two strike hitter that doesn't bode well. If you have access to this info, I would suggest the Dodgers and Rockies could get that same information. It also says that he probably hasn't adjusted to a Major League breaking pitch. My take is this...Chad Tracy plays more games at 3B than Reynolds. C. Jackson plays 1B and Byrnes LF most of the time. But that's what this time of year is for...Good luck with Reynolds if you have him. I agree plenty of upside! i've also heard that tracy will take PT away from reynolds.

when a guy (Reynolds) K's every 2.7 at bats in the first half and then regresses to k'ing every 2.4 at bats in the 2nd half...that is not a good sign. his xbh also took a dive in the 2nd half.

think rob deer with a little more speed

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 8:54 am

Swing and Miss (career):

Reynolds - 36%

Cust - 34%

Dunn - 28%

That's kind of alarming, isn't it?

I like Reynolds and have him on several teams and hope that Crazy is right, but he's still someone that you should probably project to drag your BA down and plan accordingly. If he doesn't drag it down, then that's just extra BA!

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 9:52 am

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

Swing and Miss (career):

Reynolds - 36%

Cust - 34%

Dunn - 28%

That's kind of alarming, isn't it?

I like Reynolds and have him on several teams and hope that Crazy is right, but he's still someone that you should probably project to drag your BA down and plan accordingly. If he doesn't drag it down, then that's just extra BA! Great point Eli. If you've done a good job covering BA in your first 9 or 10 picks then it might be ok to take a chance on Reynolds. I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know for sure that he'll hit .270, maybe I'm hoping he makes adjustments. But you are 100% correct, if he hits for .270, it's quite a bonus, and not too farfetched either. If you're struggling in BA when you get to him in the draft, you skip him for sure.

I see potential 40/120 down the road, maybe soon. If he gets that BA into .270 with 30+ homers and 100 rbi's this year, that 10th round pick will cost you a 4th or 5th rounder next year. Value baby, with a risk.

I don't own him yet but I'll keep a close eye on him in my online championship draft today.

I've had a few people ask me to post my 2 drafts, so I'll do that tonight. I draft for the online championship at 7 p.m. EST. Wish me luck.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Fri Apr 03, 2009 10:00 am

Good luck!

But don't forget, too, that even though Reynolds has this "upside" that Arizona has a crowded team and Reynolds is a horrible fielder - I believe he led the league in errors last season and doesn't look to be doing any better this spring. If he starts slow at the plate I could definitely see him riding the pine on occasion. I still drafted him in two leagues, but I made sure to back him up with guys I know have secure starting gigs and can hit .270.

bustouts · Post by **bustouts** » Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:25 am

Reynolds will be the steal of the draft. He will put up numbers better than most taken 10 rounds before him. Hes only 25 and will get better with this being his third year. look for .272 , 30hr 110 rbi and 12 sb

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Apr 04, 2009 6:21 am

rob deer never got better

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Sat Apr 04, 2009 6:26 am

Our boy Crazy couldnt take his boy Reynolds, the draft was trying to let him but with money on the line the bs hit the fan and he passed and passed.