Projections: DH Only

[bluenose]

When making projections, how much do you devalue a guy who is DH-only eligible (Ortiz, Vladdy, Thome etc.)? Whatever my projections are for this crowd, I lop off 5 HR, 15 R, and 15 RBI, based on:



--fewer AB in 9 interleague games

--pain in the rear of rostering these guys and clogging up my Utility spot.



Opinions on whether I'm chopping too much or too little?



Thanks,

B

[ToddZ]

Why chop anything off? If you are basing your playing time estimates off previous season's playing time, the interleague aspect is already accounted for.



I can see where one may want to penalize for hindering roster flexibility, especially with the new Friday rule, but to me that is an in-draft situation, based on the flexibility I have already picked up, what stats I need, etc. I would rather start with the foundation of knowing what I think he gives me in terms of stats/value and subjectively deciding not to pick him than have an "objective" value that pre-penalizes the player, when I am already going to have to make a subjective decision. My first thought is "what will he give me", which is the non-truncated production.



[ January 22, 2010, 11:35 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[Navel Lint]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Why chop anything off? If you are basing your playing time estimates off previous season's playing time, the interleague aspect is already accounted for.



I can see where one may want to penalize for hindering roster flexibility, especially with the new Friday rule......... I thought the new Friday rule would actually increase a DL-Only player in draft value, if only slightly. Now you can play Ortiz M-R and then replace with a lesser player F-S for interleague games. Instead of having to decide whether to take a blank for three days or play the lesser talent for the entire week.

[Navel Lint]

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

Why chop anything off? If you are basing your playing time estimates off previous season's playing time, the interleague aspect is already accounted for.



I can see where one may want to penalize for hindering roster flexibility, especially with the new Friday rule......... I thought the new Friday rule would actually increase a DL-Only player in draft value, if only slightly. Now you can play Ortiz M-R and then replace with a lesser player F-S for interleague games. Instead of having to decide whether to take a blank for three days or play the lesser talent for the entire week. [/QUOTE]Of course, I guess I can also see a point where you wouldn’t want the DH Slot locked by one player because you want to move guys around to maximize AB’s. I just don’t know if 4 extra AB’s from player 30 on your roster trump the lost production of a quality DH.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

Of course, I guess I can also see a point where you wouldn’t want the DH Slot locked by one player because you want to move guys around to maximize AB’s. I just don’t know if 4 extra AB’s from player 30 on your roster trump the lost production of a quality DH. You need to look at 2 roster spots, not just one.



The comparison is



A. quality non-DH and floating in 2 replacement type players into the DH/UT spot



versus



B. quality DH and floating in 2 replacement type players into a single spot like OF or CI or whatever.



The additional flexibility of being able to put in my 2B speedster versus the Red Sox for a 4-game series on Mon-Thurs, then putting in my power hitting OF for a 3-game set at Coors from Fri-Sun tips the scales to having the UT for floating. I think anyway.