Injury Junk

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DOUGHBOYS
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Injury Junk

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:19 am

I didn't draft Nellie Cruz on any of my teams this year. I think he's a great hitter when he plays. It's the 'when he plays' part that has me ill at ease.



There are three kinds of injury categories for me in fantasy, Cruz is in the worst category, the Chipper category.

His injuries are 'naggers'. Most do not have a time frame, most do not require a dl stint. Other players in the Chipper category are Scott Rolen and JD Drew, Older players can fall under this category as well, not only may they have a lingering injury, but even when going well, they'll need the dreaded 'day of rest'. Magglio Ordonez, Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal, and Hidecki Matsui are members. These 'days of rest' come more frequently, when a player is slumping. And, fantasy owners hardly ever know they're coming.

These injuries or 'benchings' play havoc with in-season management.

Cruz was a late bloomer. He didn't come up to the Majors till six years ago. Yet, he'll turn 31 this year.

In his six years in the Bigs, he has played, at most, 128 games, and only twice gone over even 100 games. Not a good track rercord for somebody going so high in drafts. To his credit, Cruz has initiated a new running style designed to shorten hamstring problems. Unfortunatly, it'll most likely shorten steal attempts as well.



Ian Kinsler heads the middle category of injury. We can even call it the Kinsler category. These type of injuries occur from 'all out' players Kinsler, Carlos Gonzalez, Grady Sizemore, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Jacoby Ellsbury are prime examples for this list.

These guys are flying all over the field. As a fan, we love the effort, as a fantasy owner, we cringe. When guys like these play, maximum effort is put out. Head first dives, crashing into walls, sprinting down the first base line on sure outs are a few examples on why we both admire and roll our eyes in one action.



Ian Kinsler may have the most noticeable injury history among fantasy drafters. First round talent, but the injuries make you think. For me though, a guy like Kinsler is on the draft list, while Cruz is not.

Even though Kinsler's injury history is far more recognizable than Cruz, would it surprise you to learn that Kinsler has played in over 100 games EVERY year since starting play in the Bigs? He has.

In fact, Kinsler has registered at least 400 at bats during those years as well, except last year, when he had 391 at bats.

Kinsler does not 'miss' games. He simply is playing or dl'ed, making him an easy fix for owners.



The third categoryof risk is the low risk category, or what I like to call the 'Fat Guys' category. Guys like Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Paul Konerko are champions of this category. They simply do not move around enough to get hurt. When injuries do happen to these type of players, they are usually of the freakish kind like a runner barreling down the first base line or a badly placed hit by pitch.

This category is not just for big guys though. Some smaller players, play like big guys. Ichiro for example will not crash into fences and is a 'glider' around the bases. Juan Pierre even falls into this category, so does Robinson Cano. These guys will give max effort only when needed, but never go out of the way. Perfect for a fantasy roster



During winter, somebody asked me who was the one player I would never draft due to injury concerns. My answer was quick, Chase Utley.

This was before the knee problems. Utley is an all out Kinsler player. Age is not on his side, he'll be turning 33 this year AND he has led the league in getting hit by pitches three of the last four years.

He just doesn't give himself much of a chance to stay healthy.



These injury theories, do not apply to pitchers. They can blow up a elbow or shoulder at any time and we are at the mercy of the ballclubs to give us the straight poop as to the seriousness of each injury.



So, there you have it. My injury theories.

Next time, when one of your players is being boo'd by others for dogging it down the first base line, give him a little fist pump. He may not be making a team effort on the field, but he is helping your team at the same time. :D



[ March 29, 2011, 12:20 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Rainiers
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Injury Junk

Post by Rainiers » Tue Mar 29, 2011 6:04 am

Dan,



You and CC should write a book. You could patch together some great chapters just from your posts on this board.



I'd be the first in line to buy it and recommend it to others.
- Robert

DOUGHBOYS
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Injury Junk

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Mar 29, 2011 9:18 am

Thanks Robert,

I read more words typed by Shawn this year than any other writer. He gets it. He knows what is important and knows what is noise.

You know, I only bought one publication this year. I vowed to buy any publication without use of the words 'experts' and/or 'sleeper' on the cover, and 'Lindys' was the only one that qualified, even that, was a waste of money (almost three bags of Doritos)



I went to Barnes and Noble yesterday, took the Forecaster to the coffee shop and read some of the stuff written by 'Real Experts' (l still don't know what that means) for the first time this year.

As far as a synopsis on each player and a hint as to what they are capable of for the upcoming season, my preference is to read Shawn's stuff.



Besides the 'Real Experts' dig, this isn't to minimize Shandler and his crew. It is just that for this reader, I would rather read from a writer who is more in tune with the NFBC style of fantasy baseball.

The Forecaster has to appeal to the masses. I'm content in knowing that Shawn has a 15 team approach in most of his articles.



Sorry that I used your reply as a springboard for Shawn's off season work. Like you, I just thought it was excellent work and that (once again :rolleyes: ) Shawn should be lauded for it.



[ March 29, 2011, 03:20 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Scott Boras
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Injury Junk

Post by Scott Boras » Tue Mar 29, 2011 10:27 am

I agree with both Doughy and Rainiers. Doughy, your stuff is always either funny, informative, or entertaining. Your posts are money in the bank. I don't think I've ever regretted reading one.



Childs is still the source of the best info. As long as he keeps a good editor on hand.



Since Jupinka won all them monies he's been too busy counting and not enough posting. His posts are always funny.



Lot of class acts here in the NFBC. A reflection of Greg and Tom.



I'll buy that book.

Dub
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Injury Junk

Post by Dub » Tue Mar 29, 2011 1:21 pm

I agree- Doughboy is the best read on these boards. I loved this post- very creative. Too bad I own Cruz ( first time) :(



Ps: Love cc's stuff too.
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia

Rainiers
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Injury Junk

Post by Rainiers » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:58 am

Twenty some years ago, I would buy and thoughly enjoy everything I could find written by Bill James.



What Dan and Shawn write now reminds me of some of James' earliest musings. I think Bill James got started by selling memeograph copies of his stuff. The internet now would make it easier to self publish.



I am going to order Gene's Wise Guy Baseball book and see what that is all about. Maybe that will help him heal up a little quicker...



[ March 30, 2011, 08:00 AM: Message edited by: Rainiers ]
- Robert

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Glenneration X
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Injury Junk

Post by Glenneration X » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:17 am

I'm sure Dan's slightly embarassed that this thread has turned into a referendum on how good a poster he is. Too bad. His stuff is some of the most enjoyable reads on these boards.

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Atlas
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Injury Junk

Post by Atlas » Wed Mar 30, 2011 10:55 am

I'm surprised there was a post about injuries and Josh Hamilton's name didn't appear anywhere!

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