There are three kinds of injury categories for me in fantasy, Cruz is in the worst category, the Chipper category.
His injuries are 'naggers'. Most do not have a time frame, most do not require a dl stint. Other players in the Chipper category are Scott Rolen and JD Drew, Older players can fall under this category as well, not only may they have a lingering injury, but even when going well, they'll need the dreaded 'day of rest'. Magglio Ordonez, Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal, and Hidecki Matsui are members. These 'days of rest' come more frequently, when a player is slumping. And, fantasy owners hardly ever know they're coming.
These injuries or 'benchings' play havoc with in-season management.
Cruz was a late bloomer. He didn't come up to the Majors till six years ago. Yet, he'll turn 31 this year.
In his six years in the Bigs, he has played, at most, 128 games, and only twice gone over even 100 games. Not a good track rercord for somebody going so high in drafts. To his credit, Cruz has initiated a new running style designed to shorten hamstring problems. Unfortunatly, it'll most likely shorten steal attempts as well.
Ian Kinsler heads the middle category of injury. We can even call it the Kinsler category. These type of injuries occur from 'all out' players Kinsler, Carlos Gonzalez, Grady Sizemore, Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Jacoby Ellsbury are prime examples for this list.
These guys are flying all over the field. As a fan, we love the effort, as a fantasy owner, we cringe. When guys like these play, maximum effort is put out. Head first dives, crashing into walls, sprinting down the first base line on sure outs are a few examples on why we both admire and roll our eyes in one action.
Ian Kinsler may have the most noticeable injury history among fantasy drafters. First round talent, but the injuries make you think. For me though, a guy like Kinsler is on the draft list, while Cruz is not.
Even though Kinsler's injury history is far more recognizable than Cruz, would it surprise you to learn that Kinsler has played in over 100 games EVERY year since starting play in the Bigs? He has.
In fact, Kinsler has registered at least 400 at bats during those years as well, except last year, when he had 391 at bats.
Kinsler does not 'miss' games. He simply is playing or dl'ed, making him an easy fix for owners.
The third categoryof risk is the low risk category, or what I like to call the 'Fat Guys' category. Guys like Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Paul Konerko are champions of this category. They simply do not move around enough to get hurt. When injuries do happen to these type of players, they are usually of the freakish kind like a runner barreling down the first base line or a badly placed hit by pitch.
This category is not just for big guys though. Some smaller players, play like big guys. Ichiro for example will not crash into fences and is a 'glider' around the bases. Juan Pierre even falls into this category, so does Robinson Cano. These guys will give max effort only when needed, but never go out of the way. Perfect for a fantasy roster
During winter, somebody asked me who was the one player I would never draft due to injury concerns. My answer was quick, Chase Utley.
This was before the knee problems. Utley is an all out Kinsler player. Age is not on his side, he'll be turning 33 this year AND he has led the league in getting hit by pitches three of the last four years.
He just doesn't give himself much of a chance to stay healthy.
These injury theories, do not apply to pitchers. They can blow up a elbow or shoulder at any time and we are at the mercy of the ballclubs to give us the straight poop as to the seriousness of each injury.
So, there you have it. My injury theories.
Next time, when one of your players is being boo'd by others for dogging it down the first base line, give him a little fist pump. He may not be making a team effort on the field, but he is helping your team at the same time.
[ March 29, 2011, 12:20 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
